2 of the Best Prediction Market Stocks to Buy Now

2026-03-01 10:05:00 ET

Prediction markets hit the mainstream in the U.S. in 2025 as the two global leaders, Kalshi and Polymarket, started offering predictions on sports events last year. But it is the sports events market that has really sent prediction markets in the U.S. into overdrive. For Kalshi alone, it drives some 85% of its action.

What exactly are prediction markets? It's similar to betting, although different enough that it isn't as highly regulated. That distinction has become a bone of contention with actual sports betting and gambling companies. But let's set that aside for the moment.

Essentially, prediction market platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of future events (elections, sporting events, and economic indicators are popular examples), almost like stock trading. If you think the Boston Celtics basketball team, for example, will beat the N.Y. Knicks, you invest in a contract stating that, and others buy similar "shares" based on the estimated probability of the contract being fulfilled or failing. Each contract, or share, pays out $1 if you win and $0 if you lose. The contract transactions can get even more complicated depending on various probabilities.

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