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We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs. Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops. Consumers enter this slowdown with a large...
We remain cautious in equities, but in fixed income, investors now have more yield and credit spread to work with. We think that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this cycle are becoming increasingly priced into the yield curve. Our fixed income team has stress-tested fo...
Growth is slowing, but it’s slowing to trend at this point. So not to zero, not to negative, but something like the trend that we’ve experienced over the last couple of decades. So, if you’re looking for a great way to play inflation, look to the small cap asset c...
In a more fractured world, we believe governments and corporate decision-makers will increasingly focus on searching for safety and building resilience. Looking forward, rather than reaching for yield, we believe that investors will be reaching for resilience in their portfolio constr...
An update on inflation and the global energy situation. A look at how and why US recession indicators are picking up quickly. Why a recession is unlikely to be a permanent cure for inflation. For further details see: Demand Destruction
The decline in the stock market this year was primarily caused by step 1, the deflation of a number of asset bubbles. Recently, investors and executives have rather suddenly become concerned about a recession. A recession would be step 2, I have listed 17 reasons why it's likely i...
After months of fretting about soaring inflation, markets are now fully in recession-fear mode. Yield curves are flattening, credit spreads are widening, and equities are slumping - traditional recession alerts. Meanwhile, captains of industry and finance are warning of impending ...
The Fed's move wasn't entirely surprising, after markets were tipped off by a Wall Street Journal story late Monday indicating that a 75 basis-point (bps) hike was likely. At the press conference, Chairman Powell commented that by the end of 2022, the central bank intends to raise its...
The latest move of the S&P 500 places three major indices fully in the bear’s forest - the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq and now, at last, and firmly, the S&P 500. Never before has the Nasdaq (now down more than 30% since the start of the year) had so many stocks that are do...
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs. Right now, markets are caught in a tug-of-war between what may happen in the future—as a result of what the Fed does to control inflation—...