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Consensus remains cautiously positive on the economic and market outlook for the coming year, but for the first time in 18 months, we have started trimming risk in our views, advocating building dry powder to take advantage of opportunities that arise due to potential short-term market vo...
As public debt rises to record levels, countries need to calibrate fiscal policies to their own unique circumstances. With the pandemic, global debt in 2020 jumped by 14 percent to a record high $226 trillion. This figure includes both public and nonfinancial private sector debt. ...
Market sentiment has deteriorated since earlier this year amid still elevated financial vulnerabilities and mounting concerns about risks to inflation. Amid the prolonged and painful pandemic, risks to global financial stability have remained contained - so far. To an unprecedente...
The global recovery continues but momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Compared to our July forecast, the global growth projection for 2021 has been revised down marginally to 5.9 percent and is unchanged for 2022 at 4.9 percent. The dangerous divergence in economic pro...
Risk-adjusted performance continued to rise in September for the Global Market Index (GMI), an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). GMI’s 0.97 Sharpe ratio is close to the highest levels reached in recent history. ...
The selloff across global developed market government bonds over the past two weeks is prompting many to dust off the old inflation playbooks. China is no longer exporting disinflation to the rest of the world. Many businesses have contracts that allow them to pass rising costs do...
Global Market Index is useful as a starting point for research on asset allocation and portfolio design. Predictions for the market components are subject to greater uncertainty compared with aggregating forecasts, a process that may cancel out some of the errors through time. Com...
Global markets suffered their broadest retreat in a year during September. The bullish exception: commodities, which delivered a solid gain last month. Notably, US stocks and bonds lost ground, giving support to concerns that the historical diversification benefits of pairing the two ...
We move to a cautious outlook on global equities. During September, we are continuing to see risk factors build while equity valuations remain at extraordinarily high levels. While global earnings estimates for 2021 have provided a strong tailwind for markets in 2021, this impetus is ...
All signs point towards an imminent withdrawal of central bank stimulus, globally. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is headed for one of the largest fiscal cliffs ever. Global growth is slowing even before massive stimulus withdrawal. For further details see: Prepare For Turb...
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2024-05-30 13:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-01 05:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-19 20:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...