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2023-03-19 07:46:00 ET Summary The annual change in real US GDP and the S&P 500 shows broadly the same trends over the last 20 years. To quantify the relationship between the US economy and the stock market, we calculated rolling 10-year correlations. Even if economies and...
2023-03-19 05:41:00 ET Summary Idiosyncratic factors certainly played a role in SVB’s failure and the recent turmoil we’re seeing in US regional banks as well as overseas at Credit Suisse. CS is a much larger and more economically critical bank than SVB, with signifi...
2023-03-18 08:54:00 ET Summary S&P 500 earnings don’t start for another 3 – 4 weeks and are almost an afterthought now. The forward 4-quarter estimate slid this week to $221.49 from last week’s $221.55. Looking at companies like Meta (META) and Federal...
2023-03-18 02:14:07 ET Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Several important coincident indicators - tax withholding and temporary staf...
2023-03-18 01:20:49 ET Summary The recent weakness in the banking system demonstrates just how fragile it is. We have yet to see the full impact of higher interest rates in the economy, but earnings have already started to decline. The market's earnings expectations for the S&...
2023-03-15 23:05:00 ET Summary After more than 12 long years, the stage may finally be set for an extended upswing in small-caps. When leadership concentration broke down in previous cycles, we saw multiyear periods where small caps outperformed large caps. In the current cycl...
2023-03-15 22:32:00 ET Summary After the painful decline in stock prices last year, many investors have clearly come to the conclusion that this now represents another terrific buying opportunity. The forward price-to-earnings ratio now shows the S&P 500 trades at a multiple o...
2023-03-13 14:34:00 ET Summary The month of March is nearly halfway through and volatility has begun to pick up. Whereas the S&P 500 was up around 2% month to date as of this time last week, currently, the index is down over 2.5%. Although historically March might not be t...
2023-03-13 11:47:00 ET Summary Investors in the S&P 500 (SPX) couldn't catch a break during the trading week ending on 10 March 2023. At this time, it's premature to tell if the dividend futures-based model's multiplier has shifted again. The biggest question investor...
2023-03-11 23:21:00 ET Summary Climate change poses many risks to society and industries, whether it’s elevated weather uncertainty and physical damage from global warming or business-model disruptions in the transition to a lower-carbon economy. When sizing carbon allowanc...
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2024-06-11 05:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-01 05:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-18 08:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...