Global Leading Indicators, March 2025 - The World Before Tariffs, And After

2025-04-15 11:20:00 ET

Summary

• While global LEIs were still broadly rising at the end of Q1, momentum had begun to fade. We should now prepare for a sharp downturn.
• Trump’s tariff shock and its implications for global goods and capital mobility have effectively reset the clock.
• What did the global economy look like on the eve of this tariff shock? As it turns out, it was doing quite well.

The March 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here . Additional details on the methodology are available here . I’ve added a few new elements: a chart showing the G20 LEI and its three-year rolling Z-score; a comparison between headline LEI diffusion and global equities; and a chart of the first three principal components of the LEIs. Of these, the first component is the most significant - as I’ll explain below....

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