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2023-09-13 13:00:00 ET Summary Some analysts who favor one or two indicators to forecast US recessions have had a rough year. For now, the probability that a recession has started, or is about to start, remains low, based on another indicator featured in The US Business Cycle Risk...
2023-09-12 14:00:00 ET Summary Unemployment rises during recessions, but not as much as we seem to fear. The average time spent unemployed increased by less than one week during recessions. Mortgage delinquencies rise in recession by less than two percentage points. ...
2023-09-11 20:40:00 ET Summary Data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for August of 2023 showed that the US unemployment rate was 3.80%, one of the lowest in 50 years. Wall Street economists predicted a greater than 50% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months...
2023-09-08 08:20:00 ET Summary Economic data has defied recession predictions and surprised analysts with stronger performance than expected. The discussion of the Federal Reserve's need to raise the "neutral rate" has been influenced by upgraded estimates. The divergence of e...
2023-09-06 12:15:00 ET Summary Canada's GDP fell in the 2nd quarter due to decreased activity in housing, construction, and wildfires affecting industries. Recessions are a normal part of economic life and should not be viewed as unusual. During a recession, stock prices may d...
2023-08-17 10:30:00 ET Summary It’s been clear for some time that US recession risk has been sliding in recent months. It may turn out that Q3 data is strengthening, but that’s still a dicey proposition. For the moment, Fed funds futures are still pricing in high...
2023-08-17 04:54:00 ET Summary Any equity market pullback will likely be brief due to the short and shallow nature of the expected U.S. recession, and the subsequent swift recovery will demand an agile and proactive response from investors. A substantial amount of corporate bonds ...
2023-08-15 21:41:00 ET Summary The U.S. equity market in 2023 has been driven by the disproportionate outperformance of large cap, growth, and technology-oriented stocks, leading to a significant concentration of market returns. The Large-Cap Growth and technology-oriented segment...
2023-08-14 20:25:00 ET Summary The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. The 10 year TIPS yield today is consistent with the rates that prevailed prior to the 2008 crisis and I think that means that we are fi...
2023-08-11 13:26:00 ET Summary Recent economic data is a little bit of a mixed bag, with some cracks showing in the foundation for the economy, but still an economy that’s resilient. For those that think that the recent market price action is a reason that the economy won...
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2024-06-21 07:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-21 04:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-01 08:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...