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Near the start of January, I calculated market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) for SPY in 2021. The outlook was bullish, but the market has surpassed what I expected. I have re-calculated the market-implied outlook for SPY to early 2022. The options market sug...
In general, the economy is still in good shape. Still, there are now some warning signs to take note of. There are bearish developments in multiple charts and in multiple time frames. For further details see: The Markets Are Lining Up For A Modest Move Lower (Technically...
Taxes on stock buybacks are currently discussed in the U.S. The latest proposal is for a 2% excise tax on buybacks. I demonstrate that because of the tax shield effect of the excise tax, depending on the investor's capital gains tax bucket, the effective excise tax rate will be lower....
The world is beginning to get its arms around the surge in Delta coronavirus cases. The real problem that the global economy is facing is shortages and supply line issues. There is no demand problem whatsoever and we will come out of this with substantial pent-up demand needing to...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Both the long and short-term forecast, as well as the nowcast, remain positive, exemplifying a supply-constrain...
The focus in the US shifts from the labor market to pricing pressures. EU economic and financial affairs ministers are meeting in Slovenia. The meeting concludes on Saturday, September 11. The UK releases August unemployment claims and the unemployment rate on Tuesday. For f...
During a bull market, negative thinking rarely leads to positive results. Washington D.C. takes the spotlight in the next few weeks and that could increase market volatility. "Change" is in the air. The employment picture remains confusing and full of questions. For furt...
Nearly 11 million U.S. jobs available, new report shows. ECB announces slowdown in monthly bond purchases. Is the global economic recovery still on track? For further details see: A Worker's Market: U.S. Job Openings Hit All-Time High
Bond investors have eagerly awaited news on the proposed timing of the Fed’s plans to begin tapering and have been looking for hints of when rates may start to rise. The combination of low interest rates and signs of rising inflation have investors concerned. The prospects ...
Researchers have long compared the performance of equal- and market cap-weighted equity strategies, but no clear consensus has emerged on which is preferable. Of the 18 worst stock market crashes between 1926 to 2021, some, like the 1987 plunge, were short in duration while others wer...
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2024-06-21 07:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-21 04:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-01 08:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...