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The US economy remains on track to post a strong increase in output for the third quarter, but the current estimate reflects an ongoing deceleration from previous nowcasts. The current nowcast for Q3 is also well below the second quarter’s 6.6% increase. The good news: Q3 i...
In the old days of the 20th century, quite a lot of the circle was rounded out by the inventory cycle. The inventory glut having been forwarded up to the retail level, maybe wholesale, it will have to be worked down over time. It is the services side which has materially declined,...
Market implications from the onset of bond-buying taper. Is the worst of the Evergrande crisis over? Will supply chain woes significantly add to inflationary pressures? For further details see: China Crisis, Fed Taper, Supplies Chain Squeeze: Noise Or Notable?
Inflation is now rising faster than anything IHS Markit has ever seen in its Purchasing Managers’ Index, but it gets worse. It is not just cost outputs to consumers that are being passed along, but the rise in new input costs has also picked up pace. That means even higher ...
There are times when the overall stock market becomes very selective, hiding damage beneath the surface while the overall indices like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or NASDAQ power higher. From the middle of March to the middle of September, the S&P 500 was be...
The Fed’s new forecasts still imply an expectation that the currently elevated pace of inflation will fall back toward the central bank’s longer-term 2% target in 2022. Although the currently elevated level of inflation is still forecast to moderate in 2022, FOMC members...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance totaled 351,000 for the week ending September 18, a rise of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised tally of 335,000. Conversely, some areas of economic activity continue to expand, particularly the manufacturing sector, a...
Two factors influenced the US stock markets in Q3. They are the Delta variant and tapering (Fed policy). They’re related. The evidence about a rapid deterioration in labor force participation mounts as incoming information confirms that Delta-induced fear is influencing US labo...
The housing construction industry is maxed out. Fed said that current high inflation is “largely reflecting transitory factors.”. High inflation correlates with a more volatile economy. For further details see: Federal Reserve Not Tapering Means More Cycles...
The FOMC was "hawkish" relative to expectations. A 6-10 month tapering program is coming this year. The FOMC "DOTs" implied a stronger chance of rate hikes in 2022. The yield curve flattened in response to the relatively hawkish policy stance. Tightening into a slowdown br...
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2024-06-21 07:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-21 04:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-01 08:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...