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Dow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. The problem with being “bullish all the time” is that it is also perilous. A vast difference exists between an “index...
The only comparable period for this market is from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2000 - the dot-com bubble, which was another period of speculation fueled by loose monetary policy. Though at the end of the quarter, the S&P 500 was priced to return -0.91%/year ...
It seems clear at this point that GDP estimates have been too high. The similarities seem to be more strongly correlated with the 2018 economic and earnings cycle. If history plays out again, earnings should begin showing signs of weakness, setting up the market for a 2018-like fi...
For much of the time since the Fed first took action to shore up the economy after the pandemic started, the timeline for lifting off the current zero lower bound Fed funds target has been 2023. Now, however, a full half of the FOMC members expect that rates will begin to go up in 202...
Consumers are experiencing inflation at the pump and the grocery store while businesses are feeling pressure from supply chain bottlenecks and rising input costs. For investors, the best thing to do is to try to inoculate the portfolio against those higher inflation readings. The firs...
For weeks now, the Fed has been prepping the market for “taper talk”. Currently, bullish sentiment remains high, global liquidity flows are strong, and stock buybacks are at a record. Once the Fed begins to hike rates or yield curves start to invert, the time to beco...
We have recently seen the 200+ point pullback for which I have been waiting. The action this coming week will tell us if that is all the pullback we see, of if there is one more 200+ point pullback to come. I believe we are setting up to rally to 4900SPX next, which will likely be...
Yields and Dollar likely to break out. Commodities exhibit near-term weakness. Market breadth erosion and complacency in volatility are worrisome. Broken trends and seasonality help set this rally up as a bull trap. For further details see: Bull Trap - Commodities, D...
The Fed is going to cut down its bond buying at some point in all likelihood. A good strategy now, if you own bonds in your portfolios, is to sell some now, before yields go up, and prices go down. "Do not invest in China." For further details see: The Holmes Association...
The latest week was dominated by the market's focus on the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The week began under the gloom coming out of China, but the FOMC met on Tuesday and Wednesday and dominated the movement in the mar...
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2024-06-21 07:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-21 04:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-01 08:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...