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The resolution of inflation and policy uncertainty is likely to be among the most important determinants of market performance over the next 12 months. Even before Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index release, we saw signs of the shockwave to come earlier in the week. Real yiel...
The focus on Wall Street is all about inflation and whether the Fed is making a policy mistake. If there’s one major central bank that’s hoping to catch a break on inflation, the Bank of England is surely it. The week kicks off with a selection of Chinese data releas...
With the Q4 rebound on track and services picking up to offset some of the expected slowdown in goods spending and the announcement by Pfizer of an effective anti-viral for COVID, why did bonds rally? Why did interest rates fall so hard on Friday after the payroll report? Some said th...
The October inflation report is expected to show pricing pressures run to the hottest levels since 1990. China releases Inflation data on Wednesday but in the immediate term markets will be on tenterhooks over the coming weekend. Australian employment data on Thursday will cause i...
Well, the world economy is slowing and a large part of that is because of China. One of the shock effects, I guess, from the pandemic is a number of supply issues have arisen. The dollar is slightly overvalued. We’ve had an increase in the current account deficit. For...
Scarcity of inputs and goods has been felt all over the world because of disruptions to global value chains since the beginning of the pandemic. Higher inflation has been a global phenomenon, even if with different intensities and multiple determinants. A mismatch between demand and s...
Low Vol has been in the doldrums for most of the equity rally from the pandemic lows of March 2020, as would be expected based on its historical return patterns. Well-established academic research has found that stocks with lower volatility (or beta) tend to generate higher risk-adjus...
The eurozone bucked this improving trend, however, as its service sector growth slowed, accompanying a broader manufacturing slowdown that is also evident in the US and UK. US manufacturers reported the weakest output growth since July of last year, with production inhibited first and...
Consensus remains cautiously positive on the economic and market outlook for the coming year, but for the first time in 18 months, we have started trimming risk in our views, advocating building dry powder to take advantage of opportunities that arise due to potential short-term market vo...
We noted in our quarterly letter that every brokerage house on the Street was bearish and telling its customers to expect stocks to move into a correction. We also reminded you that one of Reilly’s Rules is that when everyone expects something to happen something else usually does....
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iShares today announced its plans to close the following U.S. -listed ETFs on August 25, 2022. The funds will cease trading and no longer accept creation or redemption orders after market close on August 22, 2022. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to sha...