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Summary Average input costs rose at an increased rate for the first time in five months in September, hinting at stubbornly persistent inflation within the worldwide factory sector. Supply chain cost pressures and wage pressures eased, helping bring down factory cost inflation. ...
Summary Global business conditions worsened in the manufacturing sector in September. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) dropped below the neutral level of 50.0 for the first time since June 2020. Easing of supply chain delays we...
Summary The Great Financial Crisis taught us about the extraordinary capacity of central bank balance sheets and fiscal authorities to absorb financial shocks and mitigate the effect of massive deleveraging. The politicians and monetary policymakers have become too used to their s...
Summary Near-term, inflation will remain elevated. We anticipate at least another 100–150 b.p. of tightening from major central banks in the next few months. There are already signs of an economic slowdown globally, but household finances are robust, corporate balance sheet...
Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary Many central banks aren’t acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation. Markets haven’t priced that, so we shun most stocks. Yields surged after more rate hikes and the UK’s fiscal splurge news. We cut UK gilts to underweigh...
Summary Recognizing that high inflation will not quietly go away, the world's major central banks are toughening their policies. Gradualism has given way to super-sized interest rate increases and a clearer resolve to restrain actual and expected inflation, despite adverse economi...
Summary Japan has been lagging behind a little in the global surge of inflation that started early last year. But it’s now coming along nicely. The index for “all items less fresh food” in Japan is what the Bank of Japan uses for its 2% “price stability...
Summary Consumer price inflation rose 3.0% YoY in August, and we look for headline inflation to stay above 3% for the rest of the year – but that's probably the highest it can go. We think a lack of demand-side pressures is a key reason for low inflation. With little si...
Summary The median economist forecast is for more inflation and higher unemployment than the Fed's median projection in June. The Bank of Japan meeting ends early on September 22, and the Bank of England meeting a few hours later. Japan will report August inflation figures a few d...
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2024-04-21 07:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-11 08:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-12 07:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...