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High-yield bonds have a reputation for volatility. But history shows that the US high-yield sector's yield to worst has been a reliable indicator of its return over the following five years. In fact, US high-yield bonds have performed predictably, even through rough markets. The relations...
The COVID-19 crisis has impacted asset valuations, increased volatility and led to reduced liquidity in many cases. Most asset classes have been affected, and governments have stepped in to support financial operations. In this paper, we examine the effects of the crisis on the year-to-date li...
Junk issuers have sold $46.7B of bonds so far in June, topping the previous monthly record of $46.4B in September 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg . More news on: iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF, BlackRock Corporate H...
The lack of issuance and supply over the last almost year or so, that's what makes the TIC data so fascinating. And relevant, if for other reasons, too. CLO issuance, according to a bunch of sources, peaked back last June. Remember that whole "recession scare" with the yield curve last summer?...
While the US equity rally has been more “slow and steady” than “big and bold” in the last couple of weeks, credit markets have been flying. In the chart below we show the spreads on CDX HY, the index of high yield credit default swaps used as a reference for junk ...
Make no mistake in your thinking. Both the bond and the equity markets are being led by the Fed. We are in a time, because of the pandemic, when both Congress and the Fed are doing whatever they think is necessary to get the American economy back on track. The Congress is tossing money up into...
Even in good times, it's not unusual for companies clinging to the bottom rung of the investment-grade ladder to become fallen angels. Yet concerns surrounding fallen angels are especially pronounced today, and not just because of the coronavirus pandemic and concurrent oil crash. During th...
With the sound of the Munchkins ringing in my head, and the image of Judy Garland skipping along, I am reminded of all of this, when I look at what the Fed is now doing. They have expanded their borders past anything that we have seen before, in a further effort to combat our coronavirus pande...
By Susan Hutman and Robert Hopper The coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc across economies and markets. A wave of rating downgrades, fallen angels and corporate bond defaults has begun - and it could grow into a tsunami before the pandemic recedes. But that doesn't mean invest...
There was one article after another article, every place you looked, that the U.S. equity markets were going to correct anywhere from 25% to 50% down. That has not exactly been the case. The American stock markets have been up and up and up as the wrong focus was used. I have said, countless t...