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By Pater Tenebrarum Money Supply Growth Continues to Falter Ostensibly the stock market has rallied because the Fed promised to maintain an easy monetary policy. To be sure, interest rate hikes have been put on hold for the time being and the balance sheet contraction (a.k.a."quantitativ...
By Kathy A. Jones Fed policy in neutral The Federal Reserve's decision to halt its interest rate increases helped propel markets higher in the first quarter. Declaring that the policy rate had hit "neutral," and worried that the economy was facing potential disruptions from the governmen...
By Scott Bauer At a Glance The flat to normal yield curve indicates a watershed moment for the U.S. economy Spreads in the 10-year treasury note and shorter maturities remain a key indicator to watch The yield curve is front and center in the news but what does it mean and...
The main goal of this website over the years has been to search for an operationally sound and empirically supported perspective of how the monetary system works. I've debunked tons of myths in the process of this search, but the inflation truthers have been hard to convince for some reason....
Inflation can be like molasses. It often moves slowly - until it doesn't. 1 Overall, inflation tends to be a heavily lagging economic indicator, with upward price pressures typically not being realized until an economy has already reached the overheating stage. For instance, a country's l...
By Kevin Flanagan If bond investors have learned anything this year, it is that the "winds of change" can blow in dramatically different directions regarding monetary policy. As the first quarter was coming to a close, many wondered where a rate cut would more likely come from, the U.S. or...
Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...
There was a time when "price stability" - that is, money that buys the same amount of stuff every year - was considered a good thing. But as debts began to pile up around the world, it became clear to policymakers that managing that debt required money that got a little less valuable over time...
Extreme monetary accommodation and share buybacks have extended the last three economic expansion cycles since 1991, but magnified savings and investment deficits through the economy at the same time. For one important example see WSJ : Long Bull Market has failed to fix Public Pensions. Pe...
Over the past decade, inflation has persistently undershot the Fed's inflation target. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, has averaged 1.56 percent over this time compared to a target of 2 percent. The Fed officially began inflation targeting in 2012, but was impl...
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2024-06-26 02:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-27 07:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-06 17:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...