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By James Smith , Developed Markets Economist US inflation back to target, but it won't help market pessimism US headline CPI has nudged back up to the 2% target for the first time since November, helped along by the 30% rise in gasoline prices since the low at the start of the year. B...
Posted by James Ong, Director, Derivative Portfolio Management on May 9, 2019, in Fixed Income Taken together, the recent combination of testimony, press releases, and other communications suggest that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may be considering a shift to average inflation t...
By Robert Hughes AIER's Everyday Price Index jumped 1.1 percent again in April, more than double the 0.5 percent gain in the Consumer Price Index. The EPI measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and utilities. The EPI is not se...
Stodgy and mundane, the very model of prudence and wisdom. That is what central banks are supposed to be, even in this new age transparency paradigm. The central bank being put on display for the public has been opened up for those very reasons. So you can be assured they are the very model of...
We appear to be seeing a rebound in shelter inflation and a decline in non-shelter inflation. The inverted yield curve, stabilizing home prices, declining residential investment, and a peak in existing and new home sales all suggest parallels to 2006. This is now three consecutive months with ...
Many market commentators and conspiracy theorists are postulating that China might dump its rather significant holdings of US Treasuries as revenge for trade tariffs. The chart below shows the amount of Treasuries held by foreign countries at present. $1.22 Trillion. These Treasuries came ...
This article has an ambitious purpose, namely, to show investors how interconnected different financial sectors are and how they influence other sectors. The stock markets, the Fed, the debt and the dollar are not independent entities that go their own way. They influence each other. The US do...
A recent post from the Peterson Institute - Further Thinking on the Costs and Benefits of Deficits – follows on from the Presidential Lecture given by Olivier Blanchard at the annual gathering of the American Economic Association ((AEA)) Public Debt and Low Interest Rates . T...
The widely followed 5-year Treasury market's implied inflation forecast fell to a six-week low ahead of Friday's April update on the Consumer Price Index ((CPI)). The softer outlook for pricing pressure could be noise that's linked to the US-China spat over trade. Alternatively, the market is ...
IHS Markit is, of course, only one of the many people trying to predict the monetary policy cycle in the near future. Their forecast is that the Federal Reserve will have just the one interest rate rise late this year and then that will be it for the cycle. Inflation is expected to rise to t...
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2024-06-26 02:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-27 07:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-06 17:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...