China Sees A Quiet Month Ahead With 2025 Targets Done And Dusted

2026-01-30 11:10:00 ET

By Lynn Song , Chief Economist, Greater China

China accomplishes its 2025 growth target despite 2H25 slowdown

China managed another year of stable growth in 2025, reaching its targeted 5% GDP growth rate, exactly in line with our forecasts and unchanged from 2024. Its 2025 story was one of unexpectedly resilient external demand despite the trade war, clocking a record $1.19tr trade surplus on the year. This led to much stronger-than-expected first-half growth, which was enough to hit the year’s growth target despite a clear slowdown in the second half. Growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, the slowest since the pandemic....

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