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We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets - as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance to confirm inflation is meeting its new objective supports our ...
The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earning...
Fed Chair Powell indicated in his FOMC press conference last Wednesday that he wants the Fed to be out of the QE business by mid-year 2022. That implies a rate of tapering of bond purchases by $15-20 billion per month from the present rate of $120 billion per month. Powell’s me...
The bankruptcy of the Chinese real estate company Evergrande is much more than a “Chinese Lehman”. The implications of an Evergrande collapse are far greater than what investment banks tell us. Evergrande is not an anecdote, it is a symptom. For further details...
As Q3 winds down and Q4 begins, the broad investment climate is being shaped by the turning of the monetary cycle. The Fed has already acknowledged that the economy moderated in July and August, and it still went ahead with its signal that it will begin tapering in Q4. The eurozon...
Market implications from the onset of bond-buying taper. Is the worst of the Evergrande crisis over? Will supply chain woes significantly add to inflationary pressures? For further details see: China Crisis, Fed Taper, Supplies Chain Squeeze: Noise Or Notable?
Evergrande and its financial instruments are under pressure. China’s property developer deleveraging has been a focus area for several years. While the very near term is likely to remain volatile, a potential Beijing-driven resolution, when outlined, could remove uncertaint...
The market doesn’t appear to be underestimating risks for Evergrande. Despite very bearish conventional wisdom and recent conservative positioning in our portfolios, we are now beginning to consider increasing exposure to these widening opportunities. Therefore, despite ver...
Chinese government has generally had some idea of how much risk Evergrande and other highly leveraged real estate companies pose since last year. Equity holders will most likely be wiped out, with holders of bond and wealth management products taking significant haircuts. Fundamen...
China is in the middle of a tightening regulatory cycle, implementing anti-monopoly, data security and industry-specific regulations. The recent regulatory changes were announced at a time when China was seeing a slowdown in its economy and resurgence in COVID-19 cases, which has furt...
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2024-07-01 14:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-22 14:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...