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Disinflation, and ultimately deflation, is a more significant threat than inflation over the next two years. Over the coming decades, the massive surge in unproductive debt will increase deflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Throughout 2022, disinflation will likely b...
Markets are pricing in ever more rate hikes amid hawkish policy signals. We see the eventual outcome as more benign - but brace for volatility along the way. Bond yields rose across the globe after hawkish policy moves, record euro area inflation, and much stronger-than-expected U.S. ...
The flattening Treasury curve likely has more to do with the market's failure to recognize growing structural inflationary forces. Exceptionally high inflation has turned the U.S. Federal Reserve notably hawkish. Commodity prices continue to climb, with oil touching $90 per barrel...
During the pandemic, a scarcity of semiconductors and limited car production resulted in surging used car prices. By May 2020, personal consumption of durable goods rebounded back to its pre-pandemic level. On the demand side of the inflation story, governments have worked to keep...
In politics and economics, a Potemkin village is any construction (literal or figurative) whose sole purpose is to provide an external façade to lead the population to believe the country is faring better than reality. The Fed is now discussing reversing monetary policy (by hikin...
We believe that the CPI has flaws in estimating the inflation rate. The Phillips Curve helps us to understand only the past. Financial markets seem to have overreacted in their fear of the Fed. For further details see: Phillips Curves And The Fed
We are emerging from a period of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus which flooded the markets with liquidity. Now this liquidity is slowly being withdrawn, as the Fed seeks to combat inflation. As we move from a period of low inflation and excess liquidity to one with modest o...
They expect yields to rise, as the big central banks pivot from buying around US$3.5 trillion of bonds per year, to around half a trillion dollars this year. They remain constructive on equity markets in general. Short term, the market is most concerned about inflation and wage gr...
Nearly all the commentary emanating from monetary policy makers, economists, and the media is misguided, believing inflation is rising prices and must be addressed accordingly. The solution to the inflation problem is not price controls, which are always counterproductive, but to retu...
Markets have been blissfully ignoring the threat of monetary policy tightening, until now. Global equities are down 5-to-10% month-to-date in January, and the yield curve is flatter. What comes next? This week has been dominated by a discussion market participants will be familiar wit...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...