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We now prefer U.S. and Japanese equities over European stocks due to the energy shock. We stay underweight bonds because of the inflationary backdrop. Bond yields sprinted higher last week, with U.S. 10-year Treasuries hitting near three-year highs. Signs of weakening economic activit...
The Eurodollar yield curve implies the Fed will overshoot with swift increases, which will then need to be cut. The yield curve on the Eurodollar, which can be a window into what the market thinks the Fed will do, hit a peak of 2.96% in June 2023 as of Thursday morning. If inflati...
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve launched its first salvo against inflation, raising interest rates by a quarter-percent. Despite the taper having supposedly ended at the beginning of March, the Fed is still running quantitative easing. It continues to print money out of thin a...
Central bankers conduct monetary policy to keep inflation low and predictable while promoting strong labor markets. Macroeconomic health depends on two factors: aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Since the Fed can only influence employment through demand stabilization, the emp...
Equity investors have generally reacted positively to the prospect of higher Fed policy rates. On average, FOMC members see themselves hiking rates to around 2% this year. That implies a 25 bps rate hike at each of the remaining six meetings in 2022 and possibly even one 50 bps hike. ...
The phenomenal rise in the US monetary inflation rate from early-2020 to early-2021 fuelled a speculative mania in the stock market and set in motion an economic boom. There remains some doubt as to whether or not the latest US economic boom is over. There are other measures, such...
The Fed was correct that "inflation is transitory," but this is true in the long term. Despite the twin shocks of a pandemic and war, inflation is relatively low. The bond market is approaching a reversal point. For further details see: Inflation Is Long-Term Transitory ...
The 60/40 has become the gold standard of portfolios, so you’d think that there’s very strong empirical support for this specific allocation. When we look at the historical data, the exact opposite portfolio (a 40/60) has been the optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio. ...
The blowback from the war in Ukraine has only just started to rock the global economy, but the early clues for the US remain encouraging. An added factor of uncertainty, some economists advise, is changes in the forces of growth and contraction. So far, however, there are reasons ...
Russia’s stock market partially reopens after month-long closure. Eurozone consumer confidence plummets amid war in Ukraine. What are the potential market implications of a hawkish Fed? For further details see: How Is The Russia-Ukraine War Impacting Europe's Econ...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...