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Inflation, by any measure, has been building momentum dating back to mid-2020. In the US, overall consumer inflation reached 8.5% in March, with food inflation at 8.8%. Economic theory suggests that building inflation expectations makes inflation more challenging to tame. This appears...
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. While decelerating from the pace of 2021, U.S. economic growth is expected to remain positive in 2022, pending further unexpected inflat...
The "World Economic Outlook" report released by the IMF on April 19th depicted a worsening in the global economic scenario for 2022: lower economic growth and higher inflation. Emerging market and developing economies face a common set of external shocks, but the impacts of those comm...
Based on past patterns, reported earnings growth is likely to be modestly higher than that. We think the biggest risk is from the impact of aggressive monetary policy response to contain inflation. The economy is still growing, consumers are still spending, and many businesses are...
We have a healthy labor market, and it’s hard to have a recession when the labor market is on fire. If you go back to 1970, there’s been the same number of examples where an oil price spike year-over-year of 60% occurred that led to a recession, and the same number of ex...
Despite these changing circumstances, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve maintained interest rate suppression policies well into the supply-led inflation spike. The Fed’s guidance as to how it would unwind its balance sheet - at $95 billion per mont...
Earlier this week, the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose above 3% for the first time since April 2019 as the carnage in the bond market continues. The 30-year yield needs to climb another 5.5% just to get to the breakeven point with inflation. Given this inflationary environment,...
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in an interview with the FT last week, said it is a “fantasy” to believe that the Fed can bring down inflation sufficiently without raising key interest rates to a level where they will constrain economic growth. The good news is th...
With prices rising and many uncertainties facing the U.S. economy, the risks of stagflation – that is, 1970s-like elevated inflation with slow growth or even a recession – are rising. There was massive fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic, and those stimu...
In 2022, in this first stage of raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet, the Fed is still running an accommodative policy. The economy may experience little to any inflation-jobs trade-off, as the economy continues to grow. The Taylor Rule today, and for some time in the pas...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...