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The Fed’s favored U.S. inflation measure exceeded 5% in the first quarter, and Fed officials continue to see risks to the upside. We agree that the Fed will have to navigate nimbly in the coming months as it tries to tame high inflation without breaking the U.S. economy. Th...
The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. The goal seems to be to push rates to 2.5% by the end of the year. This is also not particularly tight in light of 8.5% inflation. At $95 billion per month, ...
As I said last February, Fed tightening is not a near-term threat. M2 is now about $4.8 trillion larger than it would have been with a continuation of 6% annual growth. Outright sales of securities, when they do occur, won't be large and should be easily digested by the bond marke...
In March, the personal consumption and expenditures index registered an astonishing 6.59% year-over-year increase. Core PCE can be broadly decomposed into 65 Goods and 144 Service categories. As of March, the Above Trend categories are contributing ~3.25% to Core PCE, At Trend is ...
The Miller Income Strategy returned -10.08% for Q1 2022. As of the middle of April, the market is telling us the economy is still strong, though the rate of growth is now slowing due to overheating and inflation. Red-hot inflation now looks like it is weighing on growth. There...
Expectations of tighter Fed policy and increased demand for safe-haven assets have pushed the U.S. dollar to multi-month highs. As central banks prepare to fight inflation, the U.S. dollar remains unchallenged against the euro and yen. Euro area inflation is now over 7%, yet the E...
During the last Fed rate raising cycle, it took the Federal Reserve five years to raise the fed funds rate to 2.50%. The Fed kept rates far too low for far too long and now we are dealing with the consequences. Both fiscal and monetary policy have been highly inflationary, and we are ...
The stagflation scenario got a little more traction last week with the release of a negative Q1 GDP print on Thursday and hints of more inflation on Friday. April was a really rotten month with everything down but the general commodity indexes. Investing is mostly an exercise in s...
The phenomenal rise in the US monetary inflation rate from early-2020 to early-2021 set in motion an economic boom. Over the past few decades, a boom-to-bust transition for the US economy didn’t begin until after the monetary inflation rate (the year-over-year True Money Supply...
On Thursday morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that first quarter GDP fell by 1.4 percent (on a quarter-to-quarter, annualized basis). Two consecutive quarters of negative growth may be all that’s required for a group of boffins at the National Bureau of Economic...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...