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June CPI came in at a higher-than-expected 9.1%, stoking fears of more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. While we believe inflation is a huge problem that will likely cause negative real interest rates to persist for a while, we also think it may have peaked. We share how we ...
Gold prices are most influenced by inflation-adjusted or “real” interest rates. Inflation expectations have fallen sharply since April, and so with real interest rates now measured in positive territory, COMEX gold prices have fallen too. The fed funds futures market...
Yesterday’s US consumer inflation data for June surprised analysts with a hotter-than-expected report. Historically, core CPI has proven to be a more reliable estimate of future inflation vs. the headline measure, but there are caveats. The case for expecting peak inflation...
At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...
The July 10 "Blue Chip" consensus is that GDP grew at a 1.1% annual rate in Q2. However, based on the most recent data, S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that GDP fell 1.8% during the quarter. While recent commodity price pressures will ease or, in some cases, reverse as su...
Core inflation now appears broadly entrenched across goods and services, which should solidify Fed officials’ confidence that restrictive policy is appropriate. June headline CPI increased 1.3% month-over-month, firmer than consensus expectations. Despite June’s data...
The ClearBridge Recession Risk dashboard is a group of 12 variables that identify inflection points for the US economy. The risks of recession are continuing to elevate. In the middle of last month, we updated our recession odds to 55% over the next 18 months. The key question for...
The most recent headline CPI came in at 9.1% so it might seem odd to think that the risk of disinflation and deflation is rising. But while the CPI is a rear-view looking indicator, many forward-looking indicators are starting to tell a very different story – a story of falling...
Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...
Services are where people spend the biggest part of their budget. It’s also where inflation is now getting entrenched, independent of commodity prices, and where it’s very tough to bring inflation under control. The CPI for services spiked by 1.0% in June from May and by...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...