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Over the past 20 years, Prospective Plantings has published an intended acreage for corn that differs from observed acreage by 1.28 million acres on average. The 2021 report surprised the industry by reporting intended acreage of corn and soybeans below expectations. The report no...
Based on new hopes for a peaceful Ukrainian/Russian resolution to their nearly month-long war, the world is cautiously optimistic. Although China has been trying to help Russia avoid economic sanctions, China is struggling with its own debt problems from Evergrande, slowing economic g...
The conflict in Ukraine has already led nations to reassess their energy security, but with two of the world's biggest grain exporters at war, food security is also making waves. The Hungarian government now has the option to buy any grain destined for export, while Moldova and Serbia have re...
To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in. In this crisis, the conventional wisdom has held, at least so far, with matur...
Inflation pressures were already elevated heading into 2022, and the Russia/Ukraine war is creating additional concerns. The current macro outlook has darkened. The mixture of higher inflation and lower demand adds to an already precarious policy environment. For further det...
The economic implications of Russia’s war are potentially large and global. Domestic Chinese spending will be hit, owing to higher petrol and food prices that dampen consumption. Russia and Ukraine account for 14% of global wheat production and 30% of global wheat exports. ...
The yield curve has flattened considerably and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield is currently just 25 basis points. Many of the large, popular stocks are still grossly overvalued in my opinion. Value stocks continue to outperform. For further details s...
U.S. grain producers preparing for the 2022 spring planting season face more risk factors than ever, some that are more typical – weather and export demand, for example – than others. Grain producers face more uncertainty than usual as they look toward a new planting sea...
La Nina, setting up much as it has the past two cycles, unfortunately increases the already drought stricken West and Southern US. Current irrigated versus rainfed croppage spread is widening as more land needs to be irrigated to produce more bushels of beans and corn. Because cor...
Buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat gained more than 40% last week. Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Giv...