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Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary Many central banks aren’t acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation. Markets haven’t priced that, so we shun most stocks. Yields surged after more rate hikes and the UK’s fiscal splurge news. We cut UK gilts to underweigh...
Summary Recognizing that high inflation will not quietly go away, the world's major central banks are toughening their policies. Gradualism has given way to super-sized interest rate increases and a clearer resolve to restrain actual and expected inflation, despite adverse economi...
Summary Japan has been lagging behind a little in the global surge of inflation that started early last year. But it’s now coming along nicely. The index for “all items less fresh food” in Japan is what the Bank of Japan uses for its 2% “price stability...
Summary Consumer price inflation rose 3.0% YoY in August, and we look for headline inflation to stay above 3% for the rest of the year – but that's probably the highest it can go. We think a lack of demand-side pressures is a key reason for low inflation. With little si...
Summary The median economist forecast is for more inflation and higher unemployment than the Fed's median projection in June. The Bank of Japan meeting ends early on September 22, and the Bank of England meeting a few hours later. Japan will report August inflation figures a few d...
Summary Officials at the world's major central banks, led by the US Fed, grew increasingly united in their resolve to bring inflation under control. The August about-face pulled the Europe ex UK and both US Russell indexes back down to the bottom of the performance ranks for the y...
Summary Hotter-than-expected August CPI and quarterly options/derivatives expiration made for a toxic mix. “Core” CPI was reported up 0.6% for the month (7% annualized!), double estimates. Two-year Treasury yields surged 17 bps on CPI Tuesday – and rose 31 bps...
Summary The FOMC may consider a full-point rate hike but will likely settle on delivering its third consecutive 75 basis-point increase. The BoE will meet on Thursday and it has a big decision to make. The FX world is closely watching everything out of Japan. US ...
Summary The main economic data release for the trading week is the US inflation report. The UK economy is in a precarious position and facing a recession. Chinese President Xi is expected to meet with Russian President Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in U...
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2024-07-02 03:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 03:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-23 04:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...