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The global economy has reached an important milestone in the second quarter of 2021, surpassing the pre-pandemic real GDP peak attained in the fourth quarter of 2019. After a 3.5% contraction in 2020, global real GDP is projected to increase 6.0% in 2021, its strongest advance since 1...
Consumer prices in Japan fell again in May, according to that country’s Ministry of Finance. These miniscule inflation figures aren’t just typical for Japan, they are just as consistent with those for consumer price conditions around much of the rest of the developed wor...
Next week is filled with Fed speak that could show more policymakers are turning hawkish given the Fed’s overall surprise with pricing pressures this year. Currency markets are bracing for potentially more dollar momentum as the Fed has signaled they are now not willing to tole...
On Wednesday, the FOMC released its June statement which only served to remind us that its members are powerless in the face of inflationary conditions. The Fed’s money-printing has continued apace, so much so that severe market distortions are reflecting it, even for those wit...
Japanese equities have long been overlooked by many global investors. The tide has begun to turn in 2021, but what will it take for Japanese value stocks to make a more sustained recovery? From a long-term perspective, macroeconomic trends should help release the pent-up energy of...
IHS Markit's PMI business surveys showed the economic recovery gaining momentum in May as output growth accelerated to the fastest for 15 years. Although growth of new orders accelerated globally in May to reach the highest since 2006, employment growth slowed marginally compared to A...
Last year's pandemic crisis U-trip took just 128 days - significantly less than the long-term average, despite a once-in-a-generation healthcare crisis. While the recovery speed has varied, the global economy is clearly on the mend. We believe that the next phase of the reopening/...
Like a lot of parts of the global economy, housing/wood/material each saw a drop in both supply and demand given last year’s recession. Once beyond the commodity-induced price effects, it becomes clear the economy is settling back into the same disinflationary circumstances or ...
First of all, we see a very strong rebound in economic activity this year for the reasons that we discussed earlier, vaccines, fiscal policy, monetary policy support. We think there will be a temporary surge in inflation over the next few months, but we also think that we will see mea...
Several research studies have found significant liquidity risk premium in inflation-linked markets, both in developed and emerging markets. After substantial QE, G7 central banks now hold a high proportion of outstanding government debt, reducing the "free-float" in government debt ma...
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iShares today announced its plans to close the following U.S. -listed ETFs on August 25, 2022. The funds will cease trading and no longer accept creation or redemption orders after market close on August 22, 2022. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to sha...