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If USTs are upside down, we shouldn’t expect to find outright contradictions elsewhere in places like Japan or Germany. Yields in Germany too have gone vertical over the past few months. Unsurprisingly, the higher Treasuries go, the more they tug on bunds (10s) and bobls (5s) a...
Production and demand growth was subdued by a combination of headwinds, including the Ukraine war and new COVID-19 related disruptions - notably in China. In Europe, the Ukraine war took a toll on production growth, most prominently leading to renewed falls in output in Poland and the...
Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent infla...
The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...
As we head into the second quarter, it seems the list of economic concerns is growing rather than shrinking and yet equity markets find themselves in a very comfortable position. The rebound from the post-invasion lows has been impressive, to say the least, but whether it’s sus...
There’s a lot of talk about the Fed’s balance sheet, but I think what people forget is that the size of the balance sheets relative to gross domestic product is much higher in Japan and Europe. We seek to invest where the greatest opportunity resides, be it in EMs direct...
Preliminary PMI survey data showed only a modest impact from the Ukraine war on current economic growth in the world's largest developed economies in March. The United Kingdom recorded the strongest growth of the four largest developed economies for the third month in a row in March. ...
We now prefer U.S. and Japanese equities over European stocks due to the energy shock. We stay underweight bonds because of the inflationary backdrop. Bond yields sprinted higher last week, with U.S. 10-year Treasuries hitting near three-year highs. Signs of weakening economic activit...
High-frequency economic data are important because of the insight generated about the economy and the possible impact on policy. In the bond market, the Chinese 10-year premium has collapsed. It last finished above 100 bp on March 7. Bedeviled by Covid and natural disasters, the J...
Investors appear remarkably calm at the moment given the level of uncertainty we’re facing this year, from inflation to interest rates and even Covid, when you consider China is still embracing lockdowns. Throw soaring commodity prices into the mix and there’s plenty of ...
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iShares today announced its plans to close the following U.S. -listed ETFs on August 25, 2022. The funds will cease trading and no longer accept creation or redemption orders after market close on August 22, 2022. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to sha...