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Among the most challenging aspects of late has been to try and hold a positive medium-term (one- to three-year) view in the midst of very aggressive, downward-facing, fast-moving, cross-asset selloffs. While inflation does seem to have peaked along with expectations and breakevens, th...
We recently cut risk, but stick with stocks over bonds for now. Equity prices now reflect much of the worsening macro outlook and hawkish Fed, in our view. Markets came to grips last week with the trade-off central banks face: choke off growth or live with inflation. Yields fell and s...
Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Global growth was dragged lower, principally by steep contractions in Russia and mainland China. Barring the initial COVID-19 outbreak, M...
Fed fight against inflation rattles markets. April U.S. consumer price index eases slightly. Markets ratchet up rate-hike expectations for global central banks. For further details see: What's Driving The Volatility In Markets?
It was a tremendous week of market volatility for every asset class on Wall Street. It is still all about inflation and what will be the reaction from central banks. A challenging inflation and growth mix have driven investor concerns that the Fed won’t be able to deliver a...
Across several other regions, governments and policymakers are seeking to combat historically high rates of inflation by either tapering asset purchases or increasing policy rates. While a weaker JPY can generally be thought of as positive for Japanese businesses with a high degree of...
Why markets have been falling ever since the Fed hiked rates? Why bonds may now provide improved opportunities for investors? Volatility likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon. So, what should investors do? For further details see: Markets Sell Off As Volatility Spikes...
The pace of global economic growth slowed in April to the lowest since the downturn of the second quarter of 2020. While an easing of COVID-19 containment measures on average globally helped to sustain service sector growth in April, the rate of expansion in the service sector fell to...
We slightly reduce risk on a worsening macro outlook. We upgrade European government bonds and investment grade credit, and downgrade Chinese assets. The Fed raised rates by 0.5% last week - the largest increase since 2000 - and signaled similar rises ahead. Long-term yields shot up a...
The week ahead is important because it may be the first signs that may be peak inflation is at hand. With the current account report, Japan also reports portfolio capital flows. The MOF publishes weekly figures, but the monthly figures include a country breakdown. China's trade ba...
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iShares today announced its plans to close the following U.S. -listed ETFs on August 25, 2022. The funds will cease trading and no longer accept creation or redemption orders after market close on August 22, 2022. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to sha...