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We remain pro-risk and opt to look through any short-lived volatility that could result from a battle over lifting the U.S. debt limit and funding the government. U.S. consumer price increases slowed in August, but inflation pressure has broadened to core items less affected by the pa...
Regardless of what happens with the economy and bonds over the rest of the year, we are nearing peak exuberance in stocks. Most people fear that a slowing economy will be the trigger for a stock market selloff, but that may be the wrong worry. Bear markets are generally associated wit...
The language being using to describe this market is "frustrating, but not fatal." The headline indexes have continued to grind higher, but this is a market that has been correcting, consolidating, and churning under the surface for most of the summer. The idea of an economic “g...
How to achieve a respectable income without taking on too much risk. What's the right risk/yield trade-off for reasonable income? Will '80s-style inflation return? For further details see: The Great Fixed Income Challenge: Balancing Yield And Risk In A Low-Rate World
Developed market yield curves are displaying late-cycle dynamics. This is nowhere as obvious as on the GBP curve as hikes are being brought forward, and as the curve flattens. This makes it all the more difficult for long-end rates to rise. For further details see: Rates...
The lower-than-expected CPI pushed US rates back into the driving seat, taking Bunds for a ride. We are also watching hawkish ECB risks that could potentially narrow the UST-Bund spread. We think such tightening is more likely to be temporary and is more inclined to follow the ECB...
In addition to battery element shortages, the chip shortage has limited electric vehicle production. At the auto show in Munich last week, several auto executives commented on the chip shortage. Overall, the electrification of vehicles may be characterized by perpetual shortages for y...
The ECB is looking through higher headline inflation and inflation swaps. We doubt these will be enough to change easing expectations in December, but hawkish comment risks will remain a threat to carry trades. In the US, inflation prints have not affected breakevens much in recen...
As the economy continues to recover, market participants will concentrate on two critical areas: the employment picture and policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve. The jobs picture and Fed decisions could create volatility for commodities, stocks and bonds in the months ahead. ...
The current slowdown was telegraphed by the bond market, and we’re now in the midst of it. There are any number of reasons to think the economy will just keep fading all the way back to the pre-COVID trend of about 2%. I don’t see any reason to believe we are near recess...
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2024-07-02 08:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 10:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 18:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...