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Summary The global manufacturing PMI survey's Output Index signalled a third successive monthly drop in worldwide factory production in October. Of the 31 economies for which S&P Global PMI data are available for October, some 21 reported falling production, which was also the...
Summary Despite falling energy prices and weakening demand, a swift drop in core inflation in the eurozone doesn't seem imminent. Business surveys indicate that selling price expectations to consumers remain near all-time highs. The drop for businesses selling straight to cons...
Summary For the first time in years, the “real” forward rates depicted are all positive. When the real forward rate is a positive number, it implies that the monetary policy in the medium term is restrictive. Japan has now joined the club of restrictive monetary ...
Summary The global economy has been hit by several headwinds, almost all of them leading back to higher inflation. Europe is likely already in recession, the U.S. will enter recession in Q2 2023, while China struggles to make recovery headway. Markets have faced up to the reality ...
Summary The imminent recessions we expect in the eurozone and European Union are forecast to be relatively short and sharp. Recessions in the eurozone industrial sector tend to be more frequent, and larger, than real GDP recessions. Real GDP growth is expected to stall in the ...
Summary It is no surprise that with a retreat of 10-year Treasury yields off the highs of 4.33%, the stock market had a big rebound last week. When it is up to the bond market to decide what happens to stocks, then it is up to Jerome Powell, who will be delivering his FOMC press c...
Summary Virtually all of the Q3 2022 GDP growth was attributable to a lower trade deficit that added 2.77% to GDP growth. Most of that came from higher petroleum exports, due largely to one million barrels per day being released from the SPR. In two to three years, I expect energy...
Summary We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy. Their balance sheet reductions up selling pressure on government bonds, so we’re underweight. We think rates will - and may already have - hit levels that make recessions foretold. That isn’t yet reflected...
Summary With this month's hike, the Federal Reserve would have raised overnight rates by 300 bp while doubling the pace that its balance sheet is shrinking over the past 100 days. The JPMorgan Emerging Market Currency Index stabilized in October after falling by nearly 8.5% in the...
Summary The week ahead is important from a macro perspective. The data highlights include China's PMI, eurozone preliminary October CPI and Q3 GDP, and the US employment reports. The October PMI will be reported before the markets open on Monday. The US, eurozone, and UK prelimina...
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2024-07-02 09:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 11:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 10:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...