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2023-03-22 11:46:00 ET Summary As central banks have been trying to control inflation with the fastest rate hikes since the early 1980s, we've begun to see some cracks in the financial system. There are uncomfortable echoes of course, anytime you get any sort of problem in the fin...
2023-03-22 06:00:00 ET Summary Although reference yields on government bonds have decreased since the failure of SVB, risk premia have widened, raising financing costs and discouraging investment. Deposit withdrawals and declining equity valuations will put banks in a defensive po...
2023-03-21 11:38:00 ET Summary Plunging Treasury yields are calming financial markets, but they also indicate that the Fed doesn’t need to raise rates higher to match market rates. The banking contagion risk has spread to Europe, where all eyes are now on Credit Suisse afte...
2023-03-21 08:45:00 ET Summary Contained contagion risk would allow the ECB to resume its hawkish forward guidance. Things are more complicated for the Fed, as hikes are seen as a key part of regional banks’ problems. Were market conditions to remain calm until the Fed ...
2023-03-20 14:39:00 ET Summary Banking stresses may have tightened conditions enough for policymakers to pause their hiking cycles indefinitely. Inflation started to decline even as economic data seemed to get stronger and stronger. These are signs that the economy and financi...
2023-03-20 10:45:00 ET Summary More financial cracks from rapid rate hikes are emerging. We stay underweight equities, downgrade credit and prefer short-term government bonds for income. Bank troubles on both sides of the Atlantic hit the sector's shares last week. Short-term bond...
2023-03-20 09:00:00 ET Summary The Fed's balance sheet will be getting much larger. Europe faces a serious inflation problem. Global markets did not "seize up" this week. It is commonly believed that the "Great Financial Crisis" could have been avoided had the Federa...
2023-03-19 08:21:00 ET Summary The first thing we should emphasize is that the Silicon Valley Bank saga is not, as far as any of the evidence to date suggests, the tip of an iceberg of systemic risk throughout the banking system. Credit Suisse is plugged into the global financial ...
2023-03-19 05:41:00 ET Summary Idiosyncratic factors certainly played a role in SVB’s failure and the recent turmoil we’re seeing in US regional banks as well as overseas at Credit Suisse. CS is a much larger and more economically critical bank than SVB, with signifi...
2023-03-18 02:25:00 ET Summary Fed expectations are all over the place with Nomura analysts calling for a rate cut, while most investors are between a hold or a final quarter-point rate rise. It goes without saying that the focus in Europe next week will be firmly on the banking s...
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2024-07-02 09:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 11:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 10:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...