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The gap between energy stocks and consumer discretionary stocks is striking. We think the market is suggesting that extreme energy inflation will lead to a dramatic reduction in spending. If consumer spending turns out to be more resilient than the market expects, we think the con...
We remain cautious in equities, but in fixed income, investors now have more yield and credit spread to work with. We think that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this cycle are becoming increasingly priced into the yield curve. Our fixed income team has stress-tested fo...
The June 2022 STEO has revised downward its projected US oil output from May 2022 to Q3-23. The DPR is projecting that oil output for July 2022 will increase by 143 kb/d to 8,900 kb/d. Since the beginning of April, the US has been adding oil rigs at a rate of close to 3.7 rigs/wk....
While margins have recently reached record highs for the Energy sector in the S&P 500 as oil prices have risen, overall net profit for US producers remains below record levels seen in 2012. CAPEX for US oil producers has historically outpaced net profit and normally tracks closer ...
U.S. President Joe Biden has criticized oil majors for not stepping up to help combat record-high gasoline prices at the pump. Looking at Refinitiv Datastream, we observe U.S. oil production to see if oil companies have been increasing production since the pandemic. In reality, oi...
The Energy sector bounced along with the overall market on Tuesday, but last week, it was that sector’s turn to get taken to the woodshed. Last week marked just the sixth period in the last 30+ years that the Energy sector underperformed the S&P 500 by more than ten percent...
Russia has diverted a large share of exports to India and China, while European buyers have increased purchases from West Africa and Latin America. Greece, Malta, and Cyprus raised objections to a ban on the transporting of Russian cargoes by European-flagged vessels. The impendin...
The combination of high and rising global inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war has been driving commodities higher. Continued supply constraints from the Russia-Ukraine war and a resurgence in China’s economy will most likely support commodity prices for the rest of this year a...
In order to extend the rally in the stock market, we needed good news on the inflation front, and we needed the bond market to remain well-behaved. The resulting declines late Thursday and early Friday came quickly, putting us back in a situation where a retest of the May lows seems l...
A new high in headline inflation sends interest rates soaring. The major market averages are testing their May lows. Wednesday's Fed decision and Chairman Powell's press conference will likely dictate the direction of the market from here. Oil prices remain the lynchpin to con...
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2024-07-02 09:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 11:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 10:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...