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Summary U.S. recession risks are rising and stagflation may be poised for a comeback. A strong job market has kept us from entering such an environment, but recession risks are rising as the Federal Reserve has vowed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to rein in inflation -...
Summary For the most part, 2022 has unfolded largely on script, with inflation proving stubborn and the Federal Reserve seeking to cut off the spigot. Despite the general monetary trend toward stiff tightening on a global basis, individual countries continue to initiate moves to s...
Summary Financial markets are highly liquid and far from breaking down. Since a strong economy is going to be tough to come by these days, high real rates confirm that money is very tight. The interest cost of our federal debt is less than 3% of GDP, and that's relatively low ...
Summary When U.S. headline inflation dropped between June and July, it fueled a strong midsummer rally based on hopes that central banks might soon begin to ease their policy tightening. However, while we are not convinced the economic outlook is yet reflected in earnings outlooks...
Summary Geopolitical tensions, elevated market volatility, and the fastest pace of central bank tightening in decades are contributing to an unusually uncertain economic environment. In addition to higher income potential, yields are high enough to provide the potential for capita...
Summary Rising prices continue to confound expectations that slowing global growth will ease inflation pressures. Financial market turbulence may be here to stay for some time. The ability to rebalance negatively correlated assets helps generate income and potential return whi...
Summary The new regime poses an unavoidable trade-off for central banks: tame inflation by hiking or preserve growth. We see them overtightening rates, so keep risk low. UK gilt yields reached 14-year highs before the Bank of England intervened to halt the selloff. Yields on 10-ye...
Summary When perceived or actual risks around corporate solvency and liquidity emerge, segments of the corporate bond market reprice lower, at times dramatically so. Spreads and volatility are related and tend to broadly move together. The year-to-date change in corporate bond...
Summary In addition to the Fed Funds rate increasing, longer-term rates have increased as the market anticipates the path of future rate hikes. Interest rate increases can have a significant impact on bond investments, since bond prices fall when interest rates rise. However, ...
Summary Stocks are now back down to the lows set in June and sentiment is as negative now as it was then. There is a long list of technical items that have hit levels or rates of change we associate with bottoms, short- or long-term. The economic data last week was mostly abou...
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2024-05-02 02:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 12:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-13 09:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...