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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
In investing, the big five could more aptly refer to the connected categories of growth, inflation, interest rates, valuations, and style. 2022 is shaping up to be one of slowing toward more normal, healthy rates of economic growth and inflation, thereby paving the way to a sustainabl...
Despite ongoing inflation hype, the U.S. prices paid trend indicator peaked in June 2021 and turned down - this typically leads ISM Manufacturing prices by 2-3 months and suggests inflationary pressures will continue to reverse. Commodities are signalling a similar story, with the Gol...
December's preliminary PMI numbers provided a more solemn note to end the year. Growth momentum across the world's largest developed economies revealed to have eased in the final month of the year. The latest COVID-19 Omicron variant developments add further downside risks to the ...
Without a successful green transition everywhere, climate risk is unmanageable anywhere. Not all companies can beat inflation by raising prices – that’s why this is a stock selection environment. The steps Iran has taken demonstrate it is moving closer to attaining n...
We see 2022 heralding a new market regime by delivering global stock gains and bond losses for a second year in a row - a first in about half a century. Stocks rallied back to near record levels and yields rose last week as worries of Omicron dissipated. China’s central bank lo...
Global economic growth will be slower but still above trend in 2022. This forecast should allow equities to outperform bonds. Inflation has yet to peak, but it will likely decline over the year and as a result any central bank tightening will be modest. 2021 was a year of rebound ...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...
We may not know what the newest COVID variant holds, but it may not actually matter. The economy is already questionable and has been more and more for quite some time already. In other words, the issue at hand isn’t necessarily omicron nor really a “growth scare”...
We stay invested for now as a new virus strain and European COVID surge are hurting risk sentiment. Any delay of the powerful restart now means more later. News of the contagious new strain triggered a sell-off in risk assets. Jerome Powell was nominated to stay on as Fed chair, heral...
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2024-07-02 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 14:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-22 00:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...