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By Scott Krauthamerax In recent weeks, the US yield curve has been making investors nervous again. The curve has inverted before each of the last seven recessions, and it did so again on March 22. But what does an inversion really mean for equity returns? The yield curve simply tracks ho...
By Matthew Sheridan, Matthew Minnetian and Gershon Distenfeld The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That's good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn't disappeared, making research as important as ever. ...
By Kathy A. Jones Fed policy in neutral The Federal Reserve's decision to halt its interest rate increases helped propel markets higher in the first quarter. Declaring that the policy rate had hit "neutral," and worried that the economy was facing potential disruptions from the governmen...
By Scott Bauer At a Glance The flat to normal yield curve indicates a watershed moment for the U.S. economy Spreads in the 10-year treasury note and shorter maturities remain a key indicator to watch The yield curve is front and center in the news but what does it mean and...
The main goal of this website over the years has been to search for an operationally sound and empirically supported perspective of how the monetary system works. I've debunked tons of myths in the process of this search, but the inflation truthers have been hard to convince for some reason....
Inflation can be like molasses. It often moves slowly - until it doesn't. 1 Overall, inflation tends to be a heavily lagging economic indicator, with upward price pressures typically not being realized until an economy has already reached the overheating stage. For instance, a country's l...
By Kevin Flanagan If bond investors have learned anything this year, it is that the "winds of change" can blow in dramatically different directions regarding monetary policy. As the first quarter was coming to a close, many wondered where a rate cut would more likely come from, the U.S. or...
Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...
There was a time when "price stability" - that is, money that buys the same amount of stuff every year - was considered a good thing. But as debts began to pile up around the world, it became clear to policymakers that managing that debt required money that got a little less valuable over time...
Extreme monetary accommodation and share buybacks have extended the last three economic expansion cycles since 1991, but magnified savings and investment deficits through the economy at the same time. For one important example see WSJ : Long Bull Market has failed to fix Public Pensions. Pe...
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Reduction of Capital EASTLEIGH, UK / ACCESSWIRE / March 11, 2024 / i3 Energy plc ("i3", "i3 Energy", or the "Company") (AIM:I3E)(TSX:ITE), an independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK and Canada, announces that a Notice of General Meeting (the "Circular" ) will be...
EASTLEIGH, ENGLAND / ACCESSWIRE / November 13, 2023 / i3 Energy plc (AIM:I3E)(TSX:ITE) ("i3", "i3 Energy", or the "Company"), an independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK and Canada, announces that the court order cancelling i3 Energy's share premium account and the as...
GENERAL TEXT AMENDMENT The following amendment has been made to the ' LTIP Share Option and Cash Pool Awards ' announcement released on 10 November 2023 at 07:00 under RNS No 0724T. The vesting conditions for the UK options have been updated. All other details remain unchanged. ...