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2023-03-18 08:30:00 ET Summary The Fed began raising interest rates one year ago, on March 17, 2022, and the U.S. economy is not in recession. Milton Friedman famously found that the time lags are long and variable. The factors delaying recession will not prevent it, and it...
2023-03-18 08:21:00 ET Summary Could the consensus view of a 'no recession' scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. What happened with SVB is a result of tighter monetary policy extracting liquidity from the banking system. While ...
2023-03-16 23:29:00 ET Summary The recent disarray in the banking system appears to have caused fundamental changes to the near-term course of the economy. The expected recession is now more likely and will probably occur sooner. As the economy slows sooner, inflation may move...
2023-03-14 06:20:00 ET Summary Recession indicators are concerning. Bank runs are particularly concerning. Certain companies may outperform in a recession. As negative economic and financial news piles up, there are increasing concerns about a potential upcoming rece...
2023-03-08 10:00:00 ET Summary US recession risk is high, unless it’s not. Forecasting is hard, but almost every effort to project data benefits by combining estimates from several models. The Composite Recession Probability Index has yet to signal a high-probability es...
Summary US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. Job postings on Indeed.com, a jobs platform, suggest that the recent strength in the labor market is reversing and that rise in job openings will continue to reverse. The u...
Summary Since late 2022, the stock market pundits have been obsessed with a “soft landing”. The Fed is looking at the inflation figures coming in and they will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. The bond market has also been signaling that rates are headed high...
Summary New unemployment insurance claims have stabilized at a pace close to 200,000 per week. During the pandemic, consumption spending had outsized growth due to massive fiscal stimulus. The Fed raised rates and the yield curve inverted – an indicator of a potential future ...
Summary Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. Fed Funds futures are now pricing in a 21% chance the Fed will hike rates by 0.50% at the March meeting. The eventual revers...
Summary Many analysts suggest the economy may have a soft landing, or, rather, avoid a recession. While those employment reports remain strong, the rapid decline in growth has been a recession signal in and of itself. As we have stated earlier, the trend of the data is far more importan...
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2024-07-12 13:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 16:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-22 02:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...