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2023-05-13 09:13:00 ET Summary The shortest pauses in a 30-year period were the six months time-out in 1995 and the eight month wait-and-see in 2019. The pause periods that began in 1997 and 2006, by contrast, lasted more than a year. When the Greenspan Fed began raising rates...
2023-05-10 16:06:00 ET Summary Why a potential recession hasn't arrived yet and may not be as bad as expected? The latest corporate earnings haven't been strong, but are outperforming. Why many of last year's headwinds haven't materialized for markets? The la...
2023-05-10 01:59:00 ET Summary I think that the Fed had to take the olive branch that the market was extending to it with fully pricing in this rate hike. The First Republic going into receivership and having the merger there - I think from that vantage point, it was a win-win-win...
2023-05-10 01:05:00 ET Summary Economists have been forecasting a recession would happen since the Federal Reserve (Fed) started raising interest rates back in March 2022. The federal funds rate has risen almost 500 basis points since last year, as the Fed has aggressively attacke...
2023-05-09 02:25:00 ET Summary It's true that the Fed is very tight and the yield curve is very inverted - both being classical precursors to recessions in the past. While some observers note with concern the unprecedented decline in the M2 money supply over the past year, I view ...
2023-05-05 15:07:00 ET Summary With inflation still elevated and the labor market still “extraordinarily tight,” Fed chair Jerome Powell has kept the door slightly ajar for another hike. Markets had almost fully priced in a 25 bps rate increase, so the May 3rd decisi...
2023-05-04 15:47:00 ET Summary Why U.S. bank earnings suggest a modest recession? Potential impact of regional bank failures on the broader markets. When it comes to market uncertainty, is reality actually better than perception? The latest U.S. earnings seas...
2023-05-04 02:44:00 ET Summary 2023 has smashed all previous U.S. large-cap stock-market extremes including those of 2021 and 2022. Regardless of whether there is a soft landing or not, current valuations especially for the largest U.S. stocks aren't compatible with contracting ec...
2023-05-03 21:35:00 ET Summary With today’s 25-basis-point rate increase, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has now hiked rates by a cumulative 500 basis points since March of 2022. Whether the Fed hikes rates again in June or goes on pause will likely depend on the labor mark...
2023-05-02 20:47:03 ET Summary The Leading Economy moved into recession last year. The Cyclical Economy is entering recession now. The Total Economy will not be immune from recession. A look at historical lead and lag times and what happens next. The US economy has b...
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2024-07-12 13:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 16:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-22 02:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...