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The pervasive mistake in most forecasting is that of projecting current trends forward. The best corrective against that is the consistent use of both short and long leading indicators. Although disparaged by pundits (who need to justify their Wall Street pay), the Index of Leadin...
The recent release of the CES employment data for July enables us to dig a bit deeper into exactly what groups have been and continue to be impacted by the pandemic and where we stand relative to the pre-pandemic labor market. Management and professional occupations are down 2.2 milli...
Valuations are a terrible market timing indicator. High valuations historically precede long periods of low to negative returns. Investing is about managing the risks that will substantially reduce your ability to “stay in the game long enough” to “win.”...
The 10-year Treasury yield declined a bit during the Afghanistan crisis, so all eyes are now on the Fed to see how new realities will impact monetary policy. The Fed released its latest FOMC minutes, which revealed a disagreement within the FOMC about when QE tapering will begin. On T...
Weak PMIs mean expectations of strong taper warnings at Jackson Hole are being pared back. This could be a mistake, but pessimism means even a hawkish Fed would be greeted with a modest market reaction. In the meantime, supply skews rates moderately higher this week. For fur...
Our positive view on the market coming out of the pandemic contraction has partially centered on earnings growth expectations. As the second quarter earnings reports are nearing an end, YoY quarterly earnings growth is peaking at 94.7% for Q2 for companies in the S&P 500 Index. ...
Last week’s breadth sell signal was fairly convincing and should be taken seriously. I recently recommended purchasing shares of grocery giant Kroger, based purely on technical factors, and the stock has taken off. Options players continue to tightly hedge against a stock m...
The highly infectious COVID Delta variant is spreading rapidly, even in highly vaccinated countries, testing the will of governments to continue the reopening process and threatening the economic recovery. Inflation remains elevated due to high consumer spending, supply chain bottlene...
In the fastest bull market in history, the S&P 500 doubled from its pandemic lows. Throughout history, uninterrupted market advances are always met by corrections, bear markets, or worse. When you add higher inflation levels, which is outpacing wage growth, and a reduction in ...
2021 has seen a big surge in cost pressures that seem to be accelerating. Energy and rent are two big components of this rising inflation. This inflation has eaten up all wage gains of the past year and recently we have seen sharply falling consumer sentiment and a very disappointing ...
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2024-07-02 16:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 17:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-21 12:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...