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Back in 2008, US banks gambled and lost. The aftermath was problematic. Today is quite different. For further details see: The Current Economic Downturn: It's Totally Different Than 2008
This is a weekly series focused on analyzing the previous week’s economic data releases. The objective is to concentrate on leading indicators of economic activity to determine whether the economy is strengthening or weakening, and the rate of inflation is increasing or decreas...
The March jobs report shows a strong, broad-based gain in private payrolls. The strong report is consistent with other signs that the economic recovery from the government lockdowns in 2020 is gaining momentum as the restrictions on consumers and businesses are lifted. However, th...
Sharply, rising interest rates have always, without exception, led to a market decoupling. The problem with being wrong, and facing the wrath of risk, is the loss of capital creates a negative effect to compounding that you can never recover. Despite the understanding that the mar...
As I've been saying ever since this all started, I expect the US to recover first, then the UK and then Europe to come a very poor third. This is partly about stimulus policies and also about the underlying flexibility of the varied economies. The current US jobs blowout is suppor...
The jobs report on Friday was strong. However, there is still a large amount of labor market slack. The markets are still mostly positive; recent softness in smaller-caps indexes is likely a pause and not the beginning of a major move lower. For further details see: Smal...
President Biden introduced the first of his two multi-trillion-dollar, demand-focused stimulus bills this week. We have not changed our view that the recovery will be broad-based and supercharged both here and abroad, supported by overly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. ...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The nowcast and the short term forecast for most of 2021 are "extremely" positive. But higher interest rate...
Q1 ends with solid gains as investors turn the page and review the Q2 outlook. There are some looming negatives that can impact the recovery. The risk to this Bull market remains the same, policy error. The vaccine rollout is the reason for the recent uptick in consumer sentiment ...
Leisure & Hospitality (280,000), Government (136,000), and Education & Health Services (101,000), which tend to be government supported, were 517,000 of the 916,000 jobs. The rise of COVID19 cases and the confirmation of the Brazilian variant in Michigan last week gives u...
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BlackRock today announced a series of product enhancements to the iShares Morningstar U.S. Equity Style Box ETFs. The changes to each of the nine funds outlined below are expected to be implemented no earlier than March 19, 2021. - Continued – - Continued - - Continue...