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The Treasury curve continued flattening during the first quarter of 2022, with short-term Treasury yields rising precipitously while longer Treasury yields rose at a slower rate. As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable munici...
The Federal Reserve launched its fight against inflation earlier this month, but it wasn’t exactly shock and awe. The last time mortgage rates were this high, the stock market crashed and the Fed was forced to abandon monetary tightening. The bubble in the housing market to...
The conflict will inevitably drive food prices higher. The European Central Bank announced an acceleration of its tapering program. Commodity markets may look very different than today, with potentially large changes in sources of production, as well as in transportation and refin...
Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...
The CRB commodity price index (39% fossil fuels and 41% agriculture) has leapt 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and is up 38% year-to-date. The cost of living shock is big amid negative real wage gains and a freakish jump in shelter expense over the past two years. ...
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, running roughly in parallel but higher. The current situation is much closer to the scenario of the 1970s and 1980s than it is to the Financial Crisis and the March 2020 crisis. The spread is widening becau...
It’s likely that we are experiencing a panic in the mortgage bond market now. Like 1994, we have had a complacent Fed that left policy rates too low for too long. Both were foolish times, where policy should have been tighter. This led to massive refinancing of mortgages, and m...
Over the past seven months, US ten-year Treasury prices (the flip side of yields) have seen their third-largest drawdown of the last century. The US thirty-year bond at 2.59% (up from 1.20% in July 2020) is lower than the 20-year as the curve has inverted at 30-20, 3-10 and 5-10 terms...
Historical analysis shows that value exposures have tended to outperform in a rising yield environment as it coincides with rising inflation. In a rising rate environment, traditional bonds can lose value, but investors should not write off fixed income exposure altogether. Exposu...
Corporate high-yield is outperforming the corporate high-grade index. One unusual aspect to the 2022 stock market selloff is that the Treasury trade hasn't happened. The psychological impact of crude oil and gasoline prices may be a bigger factor in the stock market sentiment data...
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2024-06-12 19:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-01 03:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 04:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...