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If inflation and rate increases do not rise above current market expectations, however, there is a case for longer-duration instruments. Asset allocation models are well documented across the investment universe, and portfolio diversification is a widely accepted principle. Histor...
As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to show signs of weakness. Wider spreads and longer durations hurt our performance during the quarter, but locking in higher book yields should be beneficial to our...
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) opened 2022 with drawdowns not seen in 40 years and high volatility that tracked the MOVE Index, a measure of uncertainty in the bond market. An analysis of historical MOVE data and MBS performance highlights an intriguing pattern: as the MOVE Index ri...
We left a stimulated expansion and rising US stock market for a contracting “bear market” and likely economic recession. The stock market performed its traditional function by discounting the future and falling before an economic contraction began. Over the last two week...
Success in investing over the long term isn’t just about picking winners. By adopting a balanced diversified approach, your portfolio stands a better chance of achieving a stable return over time. In a rapid rising environment for equity markets, we expect fixed income to u...
On Monday (June 13), the US stock market fell again, closing over 20% below its all-time high that is commonly used to define a bear market. Better starting yields and diversification benefits, especially in recessions, are key reasons to own bonds for the short- and long-term. Ou...
When money is virtually free for borrowers and near-nil yielding for investors, many people do dumb stuff with money. But when rates rise sharply, the riskiest bets blow up, and investors get reminded that capital options are far from equal. Return of principal matters most in the...
The year-over-year change in core CPI peaked in March and is coming down, albeit slower than we’d all like to see. The economy is slowing in some areas and inflation is still high but probably peaking. Bond yields are starting to look pretty attractive relative to stock div...
The financial system is unfathomably complex, and no one, the Fed included, can prepare for every possible scenario as it embarks on its most ambitious QT program to date. While Markets determine the direction of yields, in the short term, Treasury yields are more likely to be driven ...
It certainly has been an extraordinary period of weakness for the bond market with the most rapid rising yields that we’ve seen in decades. But the other side of the coin is that now that yields are at these higher levels, bonds represent a much more interesting investment oppo...
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2024-06-12 19:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-01 03:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 04:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...