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Business costs are now rising at a rate not seen since 2008. Input cost inflation accelerated worldwide in both manufacturing and services. COVID-19 containment measures have been almost completely removed in the UK and US, though many restrictions persist in the eurozone. F...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit business confidence across much of the world, representing a bigger jolt to worldwide business optimism. Falls in confidence were widespread. In fact, while business confidence dropped sharply in March, trends in output were generally more resi...
The Ukraine invasion and resulting sanctions have led to a steep downturn in the Russian economy. Rising backlogs were most commonly reported in the US and across the Eurozone. Growth is proving encouragingly resilient, but the March survey data indicate that risks have tilted to ...
Production and demand growth was subdued by a combination of headwinds, including the Ukraine war and new COVID-19 related disruptions - notably in China. In Europe, the Ukraine war took a toll on production growth, most prominently leading to renewed falls in output in Poland and the...
Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent infla...
We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI...
The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...
Western economies received a rude awakening to the risks of supply chain disruptions and component dependency/deficiency during the Covid pandemic. Sovereigns, businesses, and households today are all highly leveraged. Inflation is likely to be higher than the Fed’s target ...
Even before the war began, supply chain frictions had only improved marginally from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, expect even longer-lasting disruptions, a new round of delays, and protracted supply shortages. No economic sector can escape the surge in energy prices. For furth...
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2024-02-21 15:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-31 02:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...