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2023-04-15 02:25:00 ET Summary One of the recurring themes I’ve focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we’ve been experiencing since 2021. The commercial real estate market is just one piece of a much larger overa...
2023-04-13 02:25:00 ET Summary Exacerbated by the recent banking crisis, sentiment around commercial real estate (CRE) has turned so weak that these assets are almost perceived to be uninvestible. However, the CRE market has been no stranger to distress since the Global Financial ...
2023-04-13 02:23:00 ET Summary The Consumer Price Index for March was marked by plunging energy prices and surging services prices. Core CPI jumped by 5.6% year over year, hotter than the 5.5% increase in the prior month, and the first year-over-year increase since September. ...
2023-04-12 22:30:00 ET Summary Headline inflation is now running at about a 3.5-4% rate, not the 5% rate cited by most news sources today. If Owners' Equivalent Rent continues to moderate, as it almost undoubtedly will, headline inflation will all but vanish in coming months. ...
2023-04-12 13:49:00 ET Summary The rising interest rate environment was already weighing on the outlook for construction activity, but the recent stresses in the US and European banking sectors have added to fears that lenders will increasingly step back. The US looks especially v...
2023-04-12 00:08:00 ET Summary A negative US 10-year minus 3-month yield spread has signalled every incoming recession of the last 60 years. In the real world, global PC shipments were -29% year over year in the first quarter, and the average work week in March’s payroll re...
2023-04-11 05:30:00 ET Summary As long as banks have existed, banks have failed, just like other companies have failed, even the most splendid ones. Special servicing rates are a precursor for potential defaults for CRE mortgages that have been securitized into CMBS. CRE is un...
2023-04-06 09:40:00 ET Summary Coming out of January 2023's improvement, we had anticipated lower mortgage rates recorded in February 2023 would lead to a lower median new home's mortgage payment. After dipping to a revised 39.3% in January 2023, the mortgage payment for a median ...
2023-04-04 19:09:14 ET Summary Wild swings in relative share prices leads to a dramatic change in relative values. Exploiting these opportunities enhances total returns and dividend income over time. This weekend saw a staggering number of extreme failures in market prices. ...
2023-04-04 05:16:00 ET Summary The way we understand the tech economy is changing dramatically. While we can’t be sure if it is or is not too soon to enter the highest-quality REIT space, we know for sure it is not too late. Near-term challenges create volatility; long-...
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2024-05-02 22:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 06:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...