Weekly Commentary: It's Back

2025-12-13 03:40:55 ET

Global bond yields continued their march higher - Germany, Portugal, Italy, and Greece another six bps. Ten-year Treasury yields gained five bps to a three-month high of 4.18%. The cryptocurrencies were back under pressure late in the week. Gold surged $102 and Silver 6.2% - to record highs. Meanwhile, cracks in the AI mania are increasingly discernible.

December 11 - Bloomberg (Caleb Mutua): "Oracle Corp.'s new investment-grade notes are now trading more like junk bonds, as delays on the completion dates for some data centers add to fears about profits from its artificial intelligence investments… Meanwhile, the cost of protecting Oracle's debt against default rose as much as 14.4 bps on Friday to 151.3 bps… The measure is poised to finish at its highest level since 2009 for a second-straight session. Oracle is among tech bellwethers borrowing heavily in the public and private debt markets to finance AI efforts."

Financial conditions: zero. Credit: zero. Leveraged Loans: zero. Leverage: zero. Hedge funds: zero. Basis trade: zero. Bonds: one.

How is it that such critical topics garner not even a mention? Today's extraordinary environment demands much more from the journalists asking questions at Chair Powell's post-meeting press conferences....

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