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As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...
The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...
Bond yields have started to break down, and if today's chart is anything to go by, it's entirely possible we see a further push lower in yields. The May round of flash PMIs brought mostly disappointment, with all the majors undershooting expectations, and falling on the month. Europe fell a ...
Hate spreads faster than love and fear sells, which helps explain why April's "nascent reflation" narrative is seemingly dead and buried. Thanks in no small part to trade concerns, this week saw the return of the late-March "growth scare" story, as told by bonds, whose "voice" is always pret...
The Treasury market's outlook has turned grim, based on the inverted yield curve of late. Another dimension of the cautious outlook is yesterday's sharp drop in the implied inflation outlook, based on yield spreads for nominal less inflation-indexed Treasury rates. Let's start with the yield...
Right now, the Federal Reserve seems to be doing very well. Because the Federal Reserve seems to be dong very well and seems to be controlling the situation, the value of the US dollar has strengthened this year and shows many signs of moving even higher. The value of the US dollar is an i...
Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Hiu Fat Tse as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Click here to find out more » Yield curve i...
By Gary Alexander Old economic theories and partisan political critics say that President Trump's escalated tariffs will cause soaring inflation going into next year's elections, perhaps causing a recession and hurting his re-election chances. If so, raising tariffs on $300 billion in Chin...
Judging by several key economic indicators, it's reasonable to assume that inflation will remain steady at a moderate pace. US GDP growth in the first quarter quickened to a solid 3.2% increase and the labor market expanded at a strong pace in April . Later this year, the expansion will bec...
The U.S. and China vow to dig in their heels as simmering trade tensions between the two countries risk boiling over into an all-out trade war. Kim Parlee speaks with Scott Colbourne , Managing Director at TD Asset Management, about the potential economic impact of tit-for-tat tariffs ...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...