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Elga assesses the options the Fed is considering during its monetary policy review. This is the third post in a series of blog posts on the Fed and inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve is considering a monetary policy shift from its flexible inflation forecast targeting to one of se...
If you wanted to, you could point to news that the US will delay the imposition of higher tariff rates on some Chinese products to June 15 as a catalyst for the Friday morning surge in equities ( SPY ), but it's probably safe to assume that rate cut bets are again playing a big role in propell...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 5 by Menzie Chinn here . Spreads relative to 3 months continue to decline. Source: BondSuperMart.com . On the run yields. In other words, despite interruptions, key term spreads are declining even as economic policy uncerta...
Here’s a key quote from yesterday's complimentary edition of The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: “The problem remains that you can't eliminate the economic cycle. While it's nice to imagine PE Powell and the Vice Chair of the Fed coming out every single day, r...
You'd think that the more trouble the US causes around the world, the weaker the dollar would trade. Who, after all, wants to own the currency of the country perceived by most to be the source of today's long list of trade conflicts and dirty wars? Apparently everyone, in a dynamic that's be...
Markets are again in an unsettled state. Gyrations in trade policy in the United States are one culprit, although more speculative financing practices at the fringes of the system are also running into difficulties. Although I am writing a book on recessions, my argument is that recessions are...
By Bluford Putnam A rally in U.S. Treasuries, with prices rising and yields dropping, has reignited concerns over the health of the economy. What's driving the bond market? Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
Inflation expectations have sharply fallen recently, driving down U.S. government bond yields and focusing attention on Fed policy. The market now expects three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2020. The Fed is getting concerned that its current toolkit won't effectively counter a future recession....
On Friday, the stock market closed down making May the worst month for stocks this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed at 2,752, down from the historic highs hit toward the end of April. And, with the growing threat of major tariff changes, the probability that ther...
By Bluford Putnam The U.S. has had an extended and very impressive rally in the prices of U.S. Treasury securities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury has seen its yield move from a recent high of 3.23% in early October 2018, down to 2.22% at the end of May 2019. One of the most important questions...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...