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The Federal Reserve has ended its efforts to “normalize” its balance sheet. That is, the Fed has now moved on to the next stage of its operations. It has stopped reducing the size of its securities portfolio and now is focusing almost entirely on what it should do with interest...
It's that D-word again. Deflation is knocking at the door of the global economy. But who is going to answer, and who is really at the door? (and so what??) In the following charts and paragraphs I will provide my take on the key drivers, the response, the ripple effects, and a base case scen...
By Olumide Owolabi, Portfolio Manager, Global Fixed Income Team The Fed seems more likely to focus on a range of policy tools. Neuberger Berman's Global Fixed Income team recently conducted a roundtable discussion focused on the unprecedented dynamics of negative interest rates. We exa...
By Colin Lloyd Following on from my previous article, " The Pension Fund Apocalypse ," these are just a few of last month's stories. Danske Bank ([[DNSKF]]) of Denmark introduces the first negative 10-year fixed-rate mortgage. The German Finance Ministry voices disappointment at the ...
Elga discusses how conventional and unconventional monetary policy space is limited and rapidly being used up even before central banks respond to the next downturn, let alone a full-blown recession. This is the second in a series of four blogs on the topic of "Dealing with the next downturn....
Background This is Part 2 of a planned 3-part series. Part 1 reviewed the secular bull market in bonds, i.e., toward lower rates, as I have described it since 2013. It also proposed a new target range for the 30-year Treasury bond ( TLT ) a few years from now of 1-2.5%, and a target yield ...
Why exactly do governments borrow? Well, it's not for the same reason as most private sector entities (households or firms) borrow, i.e., to make investments. While there are many who argued that the government should borrow only to invest, that idea has not actually been put into practice. ...
[Personal Note: With Hurricane Dorian heading my way I may not be able to conduct business for a few days next week. Who knows if my phone lines will work or if I will have any internet service. I am in the "Hunker Down Mode," with the Sages. Please wish us well.] There are many theories abo...
The most important forces that now exist are: 1) The End of the Long-Term Debt Cycle (When Central Banks Are No Longer Effective) + 2) The Large Wealth Gap and Political Polarity + 3) A Rising Work Power Challenging an Existing World Power = The Bond Blow-Off, Rising Gold Prices,...
I have some seen some commentary about hedging demand and Treasury yields. One typical interpretation is that hedging demand is pushing Treasury yields "too low," and so, the signal from the yield curve is distorted. Furthermore, one could argue that this represents some form of "bond bubble."...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...