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After constantly running through what the FOMC gets (very) wrong , let's give them some credit for what they got right. Though this will end up as a backhanded compliment, still. After having spent all of 2018 forecasting accelerating inflation indices, from around New Year's Day forward poli...
Ahead of Thursday’s September report on US consumer inflation, the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 5-year maturities quietly ticked down to 1.24% in Wednesday’s trading (based on daily data via Treasury.gov). The crowd’s estimate of future pricing p...
By Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA Last week, I explained how Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet expansion could send 10-year Treasury yields toward zero over the next few years. While that notion may seem far-fetched to some, my point was to highlight why quantitative easing isn't a pana...
RECESSION ANGST VS. RECESSION REALITIES Global growth have been at the center of investor worries, but in some geographies, this is currently more a function of anticipation than hard data. Looking into the fourth quarter of 2019, we would break the world into two groups. Europe and some m...
Repogeddon Breitbart and ZeroHedge have been shouting that the financial markets are in chaos, disaster looms, over the spike in repo rates. This isn't actually a serious problem whatever is being said. Sure, there's a reasonable argument that we'd prefer not to have repo rates of 10% ...
This is the fourth in a series of posts regarding the Fed's balance sheet and quantitative easing. Unlike the first three, I'm not going to do the graphs of the composition of the Fed's balance sheet that I did before, because I'm not sure it's relevant to the present argument. I want to quo...
With China closed for its National Day Golden Week holiday, the stage was set for Japan to steal the market spotlight. If only briefly. The Bank of Japan announced last night that it had had enough of the JGB curve. The 2s10s very nearly inverted last month , and BoJ officials released prelim...
Last December, I made another suggestion to watch bond yields in 2019. I had made a similar suggestion in December 2017, and must admit that the movement in yields in 2018 completely surprised me. Well, here we are, three quarters of the way through 2019 and I feel somewhat the same way as...
By Eric Winograd Transcript: The Fed has now cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at each of its last two meetings. The market is priced for, and most analysts expect, roughly one additional 25-basis point rate cut in the next few months. We’re a little more a...
I had long wondered why the yields on US T-bonds and the yields on Japanese and European sovereign bonds would not converge. The conventional theory is that when interest rates are relatively high in country A, then investors in country B should buy the bonds of country A, lowering the yield i...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...