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However, with monetary policy seemingly on autopilot, fixed income investors have instead placed their focus on fiscal policy. It is on the QE point that the Fed will have some potential policy flexibility. In other words, as we highlighted in our pre-election outlook piece, there...
U.S. Fed keeps rates near zero. Colbourne: Fed unlikely to address the recent retail stock frenzy. Colbourne: Fed likely to to be very accommodating over a long period of time. For further details see: Fed Holds On Rates, But Warns Economic Growth Is Slowing
There is an important difference between input cost inflation and monetary inflation. Milton Friedman famously said inflation is a monetary phenomenon. He was only half right. Input cost inflation hits both consumers' purchasing power and businesses' profit margins. The 2020s ...
Recent high risk speculation is a natural response to conditions created by the Fed. The Fed is overestimating its ability to keep yields low when inflation heats up. Treasury yields will rise to keep up with inflation. Shorting Treasuries is an attractive way to play this lik...
When looking at bond yields, one should keep in mind that the entire yield curve is a mathematical object. We cannot model yield curve tenors as stand-alone time series; we need to enforce sensible relationships along the curve. This has the side effect that we can predict yields ...
COVID turned out to be quite the economic event, and a pandemic under control promises to deliver a recovering economy by the end of 2021. On the other hand, should the vaccinations not go according to plan and the pandemic is not declining by June 2021, the economy may not recover at...
After a dramatic "risk-on" rotation beginning in early 2020, we greet the new year with a technically oversold US currency and overbought stock market. In other words, investor positioning has become lopsided, arguing that a countertrend bounce in the "greenback" and near-term drawdow...
With Treasuries blowing right through the 100% of GDP milepost - and likely poised to reach 125% within the next year or two - there's no time like the present to recognize our nation is in serious fiscal trouble. The pandemic is not close to my greatest worry. These days I have great...
In the past few months, the surge in commodity prices has led to rising concerns over an unexpected rise in long-term inflation expectations. Most of participants are expecting higher global CPI prints in the month to come. However, the pre-Covid-19 symptoms (demographic, disrupti...
The wild swings in government bond yields that characterized most of 2020 were largely muted in December. Finland's 10-year government bond yield saw the largest movement, falling by more than 5 basis points to finish at -0.44%. Australian 10-year bond yield increased by more than...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...