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Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to push higher in June, based on the annualized Sharpe ratio for a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. GMI’s 10-year SR increased to 0.84, the highest in 18 months. GMI is an unmanaged, market-value...
As we mark the halfway point of the year, the economy is in full recovery mode and asset prices are soaring. As we enter the second half of the year though, it is hard to ignore some contradictions. Economic growth in H1 is going to print a big number, and yet, the 10-year Treasury no...
Reverse repurchase agreements have exploded to a trillion dollars in money that the Fed is sucking out of the financial system. The Fed is effectively being forced by interest rates within the intra-banking system to take as much cash out of bank reserve accounts as it is adding via i...
Investment uncertainty is focused on the nature of the current spike in inflation, which the Fed argues is transitory, though a growing number of people do not buy this narrative. Historically, the Fed has never been able to head off any longer-lasting inflation uptrends without a recessi...
The first signs of inflation have bubbled up in the market. It is unclear if inflation will be sustainable, but the risks of entering a new inflationary regime need to be considered. Many see a return to the pre-COVID environment of secular stagnation. But a breakout to higher inflati...
MSCI US REIT Index rallied 2.7% in June, which marks an impressive run of eight consecutive monthly increases. The Russell 3000 Index jumped 2.5% in June, the fifth straight monthly advance. Comparing GMI to US stocks and bonds shows that global asset allocation remains competitiv...
The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that CPI rose by 5.0 percent over the past 12 months. This is the highest rate of inflation since before the 2008 financial crisis. Swings in the price of oil are why many economists rely on “core” rates of in...
Inflation has been so low for so long that most of us can’t remember what it’s like to see the prices of goods and services rise in a way that we actually notice. While many have been concerned about government debt for a while now, the amount of money we’ve print...
The risk tone has worsened, but month-end flow as well as supply muddy the picture and we see the risk of a pullback today. The ECB has provided the market with a clear reaction function to trade off; the key data releases ahead will help US markets get a clearer grasp of the Fed's. ...
Faced with higher inflation numbers, the Federal Reserve has begun to create more meaningful parameters around its evolving stance on monetary policy. Although the changes could be less dramatic than many expect, we believe that investors should be prepared for higher market volatilit...
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2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-14 16:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...