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The past week has been a story of stagflation infecting the US economy while the stock market grimaces as the Fed expresses the need to start a gradual pullout from economic stimulus much sooner or face a rapid pullout a little later. Rapid inflation pounds away at the producer side i...
The consensus priced into today's market calls for growth and inflation to continue running hot. However, the bond market is fading the reflation consensus - pricing in an imminent bout of deflation. History says to bet on the bond market, indicating major downside risks to stocks...
The relentless drop in bond yields raises the question of how low can they go. For 10Y Treasuries, we think 1%. For German bonds, we’re probably closer to the bottom. The service sector is more liable to be impacted by Covid-19 cases. Look out for sentiment surveys today. ...
GMI’s 10-year Sharpe ratio (SR) edged up for a fifth straight month to 0.86, the highest since January 2020, based on a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. Profiling GMI through a drawdown lens also reflects an extended stretch of low risk. GMI is useful as a baseline...
Most of the major asset classes continued to rise in July, led by US real estate investment trusts (REITs). US equities continued trending higher. The bull run also persisted for the Global Market Index (GMI) in July. For further details see: Major Asset Classes: July 20...
Just because prices are going up doesn’t mean that inflation is. Inflation, after all, is the rate at which prices are advancing, not the fact that prices are rising in themselves. It makes no sense to claim that transitory includes all versions of the world in which inflation ...
Saying inflation expectations are "well anchored" makes it sound like they can't easily change. The reality is people expect inflation about like the current inflation. Inflation can get into positive feedback loops that are very hard, or impossible, to control. The central banker...
Stocks are expensive, and people aren’t buying because they want to but rather because they feel like they have to. When people say they are panicking into “the market”, what they really mean is they are panicking out of bank deposits or other safe assets. This pa...
Strategas Policy expert Dan Clifton takes us through the packed calendar for 2H21 in Washington. Dan hits on outlook and ramifications for infrastructure spend, tax hikes, inflation, debt ceiling, and more. More Americans are now worried about inflation than unemployment - a sea c...
This summer has seen a drop in a popular economic indicator: the slope of the yield curve. We look at the potential reasons for that and reckon that concerns, though legitimate, may be overstated. Wait until September to get a clearer read on the curve. For further details s...
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2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-14 16:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...