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Summary Occasionally, there are brief episodes of deflation, but these are typically confined to a severe financial crisis or economic crash such as we saw during the Great Depression or following the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The Austrian economists gave us the true cause of...
Summary There’s a debate over whether or not the S&P 500’s 2022 closing low in October marked the start of a new bull market. From the bear’s perspective, the tepidness of the rally off those October lows stands out. The market may not exactly be following t...
Summary December 2022 was a gloomy month for the expected future of the S&P 500's dividends. The CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures projected dividend payouts would decline during the third and fourth quarters of 2023. S&P reports the amount of dividends per ...
Summary In all previous Fed tightening episodes since 1989, the yield curve has never been as inverted as it is today. History strongly suggests that at this juncture in the monetary policy and economic cycles, yield curves are nearing a point of normalization. Yield curve normaliza...
Summary At present, we estimate that a market loss of about -30% would be required to restore expected 10-year S&P 500 total returns to the same level as 10-year Treasury bond yields. It is dangerous and almost superstitious to take the bloated profit margins and corporate earnings ...
Summary S&P 500 blended EPS growth for Q4 increases for the second week in a row, now expected to come in at -4.7%. Peak earnings season rolls on this week with 1,524 global companies expected to report, as investors start to focus on Consumer Discretionary names. Potential surp...
Summary Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. Standard & Poor's projects ...
Summary If the Fed won’t follow the bond market, maybe the bond market will follow the Fed. Last year’s decline in stocks was not about earnings but about rising interest rates. Shorting options tend to suppress volatility indexes, which is one reason why the VIX has b...
Summary As we exit the peak period of earnings season, we review the S&P 500 2022 Q4 earnings season in more detail, providing both aggregate and company level insights. Using data from the February 17th S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard, 81% of constituents have reported results (88% ...
Summary The S&P 500 Index has rebounded sharply off its previous low in October, closing up 14% on Feb. 17 since October’s trough. The market could continue to rally, of course. Running the numbers based on rolling 1-year return suggests there’s still a fair amount...
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2024-01-16 03:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
Invesco Announces Changes to Four ETFs PR Newswire PBP, CQQQ and RYJ to reduce fees; fee waiver extended for ICLO ATLANTA , Jan. 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Invesco Ltd. (NYSE: IVZ), a leading global asset management firm, has announced that it will implement...
2023-11-16 03:15:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...